The Future of the Culinary Industry
It’s been awhile friends.
The past few months have been a roller coaster of uncertainty for absolutely everyone with the arrival of COVID19. As I settled down at my parents place in Prince Edward County this March, I was anticipating a few weeks of writing, webinar developing, teaching and coaching with the locals. I was as shocked as anyone watching the pandemic explode and Trudeau call for everyone to come home. My parents left the US to return to their home, and I returned to Ottawa to await my partners safe return from the US as well.
The past few months have honestly been a blur as I’ve helped folks pivot and adapt, assisted one client with the heartbreaking task of closing, reassured the concerned folks and developed a new strategy for their businesses, and bugged the City and Government on their behalf. I then landed the honour of orchestrating the Social Media for what is normally a 3 day festival that exploded into a 3 week long virtual, international, affair of programming, live streams and virtual workshops. It’s been a heck of a ride and I feel like I’ve learned so much. A real experience for my personal resume.
That being said, my professional goal this year of posting fresh pieces every Sunday on my blog fell quickly to the side. But I’m happy to say that I am back and ready to write about what’s happening in and to our industry.
I’m being asked a lot everywhere I go what my thoughts are on the future of the industry, and the honest truth is I don’t know. There’s no straight answer for this one, and like everything else in these pandemic times, we will just have to wait and see. I do however have some thoughts and a few predictions based on things I’m watching unfold, so here they are.
Is Everyone Gonna Close?
The short answer: no. But things will look very different in our communities in all aspects after 2020, I promise you that. Some industry groups are predicting a closure rate as high as 50% of Independent Restaurants, I feel it’s a bit of an inflammatory headline. While 50% of the restaurants may close, this doesn't mean a death sentence for your favourite menu items and the end of a Chef’s career. It just means that things will look a little different going forward.
I have been absolutely entranced by this facebook group with mostly American culinary entrepreneurs. It’s like a business “crystal ball” if you will- of what’s working, and what’s not.
Al Fresco.
Here in my home province of Ontario, the government has allowed restaurants to reopen but for takeout and patio only. There are strict rules in place to ensure distancing happens, and that staff and guests are as safe as possible. Here in Ottawa in fact (and I’m hearing murmurs about the GTA too) the city is allowing food carts and trucks to apply to open up in our parks. (which hardly ever gets used for this purpose. And when folks try, it usually gets ruined.) I could see us gravitating more towards a European model where outdoor public spaces and culinary businesses go hand in hand. (Finally)
We must remember that it’s not so much people’s emotional states right now, but rather how those emotions will evolve over time. I firmly believe that even once we get the “all clear” from health authorities, there will still be lots of folks afraid to venture into a crowd, sit in a busy pub, or eat in a dining room with 200 patrons. These residual emotions will create a new demand for open air dining (or similar options) where guests will feel secure.
Catering and Adapting.
Among the suffering restaurants, our catering industry has been completely overlooked (I know, I have one as a client). Imagine a world with no celebrations, conferences, weddings, etc. COVID has been extra devastating for the catering industry as Chefs desperately step up to offer preserves and shelf stable items, take out, virtual cooking classes and more. I believe that the effects on the catering industry has potential to be completely devastating but if Chefs and owners continue to rise to the occasion as they have been, this can be avoided.
Business/ Tourism Districts.
Now that there are no people going into the office or to visit new cities, the restaurants with sky high rents in the urban cores have also been forced to find a way through. A few have turned to takeout and carts, but it will remain to be seen how the trend of the “Food Hall” that was so prevalent and innovative just a few years ago could quickly become things of the past. Home deliveries, apps, and ‘cyber’ cooking classes (more on that in a bit) could meet the need that is now here with physical office lunch break becoming obsolete.
Sharesies.
“Incubation” as it’s called in the industry is where more than one commercial food based business shares preparation and sometimes even retail space, or multiple businesses share a commercial kitchen space based off of scheduling for prep time at an industrial facility. I got my start this way. It’s a great way for a new culinary business to “toe dip” into the industry without a big investment to see if their idea is viable. In COVID times as business drops off, the quiet hours in the kitchens can now be occupied by a business “roomie”. I’ve already seen several businesses bind together to split expenses like rent and utilities, to group buy supplies driving down the cost to ride out the storm with delicious results. If you’re interested in exploring an incubation model, here in Ottawa my friend David runs The Cauldron Kitchen in the east end. It’s a great and reputable place to start. Tell him I sent you by.
Cyber Chef.
When 2020 started, the Private Chef in-home experience was beginning to take flight. In this mutually beneficial setup, not only does the client get the intimate, customized experience that is the ultimate night in for them and their guests, the Chefs have a chance to be truly free on their own schedule, curating and preparing meals that ignite their creative spirits and passion. In our current climate, -with the exception of BBQs- I can’t see many folks wanting a guest inside their home. This is where the Cyber Chef comes in. I mentioned earlier that I was working on a virtual festival for the month of June, and there was a culinary component to it. The festival shipped the raw ingredients to folks who had purchased tickets, then the classes were streamed on facebook live and on youtube. It was such a fun and interactive experience, and a great way to engage customers who aren’t quite ready to venture out yet.
I wish I had more certainty or insights, but at this point we just have to take each day as a new adventure. We are entrepreneurs. Evolving and adaptation is in our DNA. We will get through this.
To end on a positive note, I am truly inspired by the way communities have rallied, how some city officials have become soft and not so rigid, and how some restaurants have come to the aid of the most marginalized in our city. Let’s continue to support one another and our communities whenever we can.
If you’re unsure about how to navigate COVID19 at your small food based business, Restaurants Canada has compiled this amazing guide.
If you’re a business owner in distress, please reach out to your local distress center or tell a friend. Here is the link for Ottawa’s. Ontario has this amazing system now where you can text SUPPORT to 258258 and get to speak to someone. When I have a panic attack, I usually can’t speak so I found this extra wonderful.
Things are hard right now, but we need to be more open about our low points as business owners so it’s not so devastating for those who / when we don’t make it.
Losing a business isn’t worth losing your life or your well being over. Trust me. I know it seems scary, but no matter what happens there will always be a light at the end of the tunnel and people who love you no matter what.
Hang in there everyone. Need to talk? Inbox me anytime.
Join me next week for The Broke Startup. Thinking of getting started? As someone who went from a minimum wage barista to business owner by my mid twenties, I’ll share my top tips and strategies on how to get going when you don’t have a lot of dough*.
*yes that was a food pun.