Mandi's Food Business Predictions 2022
It’s that time again- when I share my food business predictions for the coming year.
2021 (and 2020) have been unlike any other in recent memory, and as a food professor in a webinar I attended so eloquently stated, “There is no strategy or textbook for this- we are literally all writing it as we go.”
With that in mind dear business owners, go easy on yourself. Be gentle. Be kind. Let go of things that are no longer serving you, and continue to do what is best for you and your business. The sheer resilience, innovation and will of the food and beverage community throughout this pandemic never ceases to amaze me- and we shall overcome this hurdle and adjust to the world that waits beyond it.
I’ve had some inquiries about my webinars- those of you who follow faithfully may know that my “not a big deal” autoimmune disorder under OHIP became a “very big deal that is costing me my eyesight” under BC care. I’ve had a few procedures, surgeries and challenges this year. As a result, many of the webinars I’d had planned for 2021 were put on hold as I took care of my health. I’m hoping to have my webinar series upgraded and ready to launch with all of you in April of 2022. (Stay tuned for some serious eyepatch fashion too!) I thank you all for your patience as I’ve been resting and recovering. As I say to my clients, “If you’re not well, there is no business.”
BC Interior pals, stay tuned. I've been hired for some sessions out here by some community powerhouses and will be sharing that information with you soon on my social media channels.
Enough about me- without further ado, the 2022 trends list!
Shelf Stable Foods: Fun fact- this was on the 2021 list too, but the growth in this industry is still evolving due to mutating covid strains resulting in abrupt closures, supply shortages, shipping interruptions, and action movie worthy climate events especially out here in my home-BC’s interior.
The simple fact is, city or country, east or west, folks still want something that is long lasting with no temperature requirements and shelf stable. As one of my dearest friends jokingly said to me in the summer of 2020 “Gardening is the new sourdough”, Pickling is the new gardening in 2022. Not only are farmers seeing new demographics (young millennials, older Gen Z’s) showing up at their gates or markets to buy bushels to create time tested shelf staples, we’re also seeing demand from the culinary savvy consumers at their local grocery for artisanal stable high end items from pickled exotic mushrooms to dried locally sourced fish. Some of my favourite examples of this (with top notch products) are Forbes Wild Foods out of Toronto or Chef Charlotte Langley’s Scout Canning with it’s cult following.
Rising Food Prices: Professor Sylvain Charlebois has been sounding the alarm on rising food prices and food waste all year long. (If you’re not following him, I strongly recommend you do.) Most of these are due to climate change and the supply chain disruptions that have occurred as a result.
With a projected increase in food prices of 5-7% in 2022, this story has been dominating the news as of late. In particular this year we’re seeing a historic rise in dairy products in Canada, so be aware and adjust your products and pricing accordingly. (If possible).
Seed > Nuts: Seed butters are not new, but will be on the rise in 2022. They're rich in vitamins, minerals, antioxidants, healthy fat, and fiber. Plus, unlike nuts, seeds aren't common allergens and are cheaper at raw cost. In particular, I’ve seen a lot of chatter around sunflower seed butter being a shelf superstar in 2022. Here are some fun suggestions on how to use the sunny spread.
Vertical Farming: I’ve seen some businesses and farmers begin vertical farming this year, as well as quite a few provincial grants popping up in regards to this new innovation. Vertical Farming is beneficial as it is sustainable and uses less water than some traditional farming, and can be more predictable due to being housed in a controlled climate. Much like some restaurants have utilized their backyards ro rooftops to grow microgreens, tomatoes and fresh herbs, I believe we’ll see more vertical farm co-ops and projects popping up in 2022. I went down so many rabbit holes reading about this- it was fascinating!
Potato Milk: Yes, you read that right. With the historic rise in dairy prices in Canada I linked to in our ‘rising food prices’ trend, more folks than ever will be seeking out nutritious, economical plant based alternatives to dairy. And it doesn’t get much more sustainable, cheap, and easy to produce than potato milk. It’s also surprisingly nutritious and neutral in flavour, making it a great addition to soups and sauces. Stay tuned for this soy alternative.
Bye Bye Booze- again: This has been on my end of year lists a few times now, but it still has so much momentum as more and more folks are putting down the bottle. Be it the elder millennials for health and emotional well being reasons, or the younger millennials and gen Z having more awareness of the caloric intake and long term health effects, consumers are interested in the artisanal non alcoholic alternative- and if it has a health benefit, even better.
We’ve seen Kombucha, fresh juices sweet + savoury, as well as sparkling flavored waters take charge, but this year's newcomer is said to be Mexican specialty fermented beverage Tepache. Tepache is typically made with pineapple, water, and brown sugar and partially fermented and like kombucha, is also said to promote healthy digestion.
Hyper-Local: While ‘shop local’ has been around for quite some time, the climate change events that led to supply disruptions, as well as the waves of closures and regulatory measures in 2021 really drove home people’s awareness that paying a little extra to support the local businesses benefits everyone in the community.
Communities out here in BC faced this reality after horrific mudslides in November washed away major routes connecting the interior to the island, exposing our greatest vulnerabilities. Those who hadn’t turned to our local farmers for supplies yet, did. It was heartwarming to see everyone come together to adapt and support one another, and some real relationships were established. I’m confident we’ll see this more than ever continuing into 2022. Farmers not only feed communities, they supply and are among the unsung heroes of the restaurant and food production world, giving us the building blocks we need to keep our businesses going. I’ve felt very fortunate to get to know some of the Farmers out here, via my relationship with some local advisory initiatives, events and our fantastic, community forward Farmers Market.
Pandemic Pups / Barkuterie: Yes, you read that right. During the pandemic we saw so many people adopt companion animals- especially dogs- for long periods of isolation. As a result, the demand for doggy dining experiences as well as artisanal treats and “Barkuterie” are up. If you chose to explore this new industry, please carefully note that the rules and standards in Canada for pet food production differ from those for humans. Get in touch with me if you have any questions.
Co Packing and Outsourcing: With the labor crisis and a mass exodus of trained staff from the food and beverage industry we saw lots of businesses turn to outsourcing their products, via a co packer. In short, a co packer will take the recipe for your product, produce it at their facility, pack and label, and even ship it to your distributors for you. I jokingly refer to it with some clients as ‘living the dream’. Another benefit of a co packer is that they usually have more pull with supply, packaging, and labeling companies due to their volume of purchase. Earlier this year there was a shortage on certain types of packaging, and we saw some folks readjust their design and business model due to it. A Co Packer would have been less likely to have this issue due to their purchasing power, or perhaps could have offered a temporary solution with their large amount of resources and industry experience.
I usually suggest co packing for businesses with shelf stable items like sauces, confections, pickles, ferments, candies and jellies, but it can be done for other items too. Ensure you crunch your numbers and find a well reputed, reliable co packer to work with. Don’t forget to have your lawyer review your contract too in regards to a non-disclosure agreement to protect your secrets- you can’t copyright a recipe in Canada- so this is integral.
Carbon Neutral: Now that climate change can no longer be ignored, folks are taking a hard look at their business models and seeing where they can reduce waste and environmental output. An example of this is the first neutral food company in the USA, Eat Neutral. Between this and California’s revolutionary Compost Law, I believe we’ll see more food and beverage businesses coming forward to do their part in reducing waste and protecting the environment in 2022.
Minimal Hyper Curated Menus and Offerings: If you take nothing else away from this trends list today, take this: almost every single trend on this list is due to supply chain disruptions due to climate change. As a direct result of this, we will be seeing menus shrink as Chefs and owners ensure consistency by sourcing local, seasonal products for the majority of their offerings. And this ain’t a bad thing. When we support local producers and farmers, everybody wins. And as for the old stereotypes of perhaps the local farms being out of budget, the climate change disasters and shortages this year have proven to us that it is far more expensive to have to go without. Keep a close eye on tiny, seasonal menus that won’t disappoint.
I hope you had fun reading my list. I believe we will all emerge from the pandemic more aware as an industry than when we began. Especially as we continue to gain awareness of local suppliers and the importance of a work/life balance.
Notice I didn’t say stronger. I’m hesitant to do so as so many food based business people, staff and producers have experienced some real trauma since the pandemic began in March of 2020. What doesn’t kill you may make you stronger eventually, but you may find that you are fragile and not feel anything resembling strength for a while. And that’s okay. Take all the time you need and adjust your business to best suit you and your recovery. That may be a year, it may be ten. Heck, some days I cry for the bakery I lost and that was a lifetime ago. There is no deadline to business grief, so take each day as it comes and bask in the love of your friends, family and clients.
Finally, I’d like to say that serving all of you is truly a privilege, and something I do not take lightly. As my 15 minute courtesy calls open back up mid January 2022, I encourage you to reach out with any questions, challenges or ideas you may have. I’m always here to help,
Want to see how I did in years past with predictions? Check the links here and here and here and do a comparison!
Happy 2022. Xo Mandi